Many companies take their first export step because of an enquiry from abroad, a contact met at a fair or a market that “everyone is going to”. Sometimes it works. More often, time and money are spent in a market that was never a good fit. Choosing an export market is a decision that can be made with data. This guide sets out a step-by-step method.
1. Start with your product code
International trade statistics are organized by product codes. The Harmonized System (HS) classifies goods with a six-digit code that is the same worldwide; countries add further digits for their own tariff and statistics purposes. In Türkiye, this national extension is the 12-digit GTİP code.
Find the correct code for your product before anything else. It is the key that opens every trade database, and it is also the basis for customs duties in the destination country.
2. Look at where the demand is
With the HS code in hand, use free international trade databases to see which countries import your product, how much and from whom:
- Trade Map, run by the International Trade Centre (ITC), shows import values, growth rates and the main supplying countries for each product and market.
- UN Comtrade, the United Nations’ trade database, provides detailed official trade statistics reported by countries.
- National statistics and exporter associations publish your own country’s exports by product and destination, which shows where your competitors at home are already selling.
At this stage, look for markets with significant import volumes and steady growth over the past three to five years, not only the largest single figure.
3. Build a shortlist
From the data, select perhaps eight to twelve candidate markets. Include a mix: large markets where competition is strong, smaller markets growing quickly, and markets where your country already has a strong position, which often means buyers know and trust its products.
4. Score the shortlist
Not every criterion matters equally for every company, so give each one a weight before scoring. A simple matrix might look like this:
| Criterion | What to look at | Example weight |
|---|---|---|
| Market size | Annual import value for your HS code | 20% |
| Growth | Import growth over 3 to 5 years | 15% |
| Competition | Number and strength of supplying countries, price levels | 15% |
| Market access | Tariffs, trade agreements, standards and certification | 20% |
| Logistics | Distance, transport time and cost | 10% |
| Commercial risk | Payment habits, currency, political stability | 10% |
| Fit | Language, business culture, existing contacts | 10% |
Score each market from 1 to 5 on every criterion, multiply by the weight and add the results. The numbers do not make the decision for you, but they make the reasoning visible and comparable.
5. Check market access in detail
A market with high demand can still be closed in practice. For your top candidates, check:
- Customs duties applied to your HS code, and whether a free trade agreement or customs union lowers them. For Turkish exporters, for example, the customs union with the EU covers industrial goods, and Türkiye has free trade agreements with many other countries.
- Non-tariff measures: technical standards, labeling rules, certification and registration requirements.
- Documentation: certificates of origin and any product-specific permits.
The ITC’s Market Access Map is a useful free starting point for tariffs and trade measures.
6. Assess commercial and payment risk
Consider how buyers in the market usually pay, how the currency has behaved, and how contracts are enforced. Export credit agencies, such as Türk Eximbank in Türkiye, offer credit insurance that can protect against non-payment, and their country assessments are a useful reference.
7. Validate on the ground
Desk research narrows the field; it does not replace contact with real buyers. Before committing a large budget, test the top one or two markets:
- Visit or exhibit at a leading trade fair in the sector.
- Contact the commercial counsellors at your country’s embassies and consulates; they know local importers and regulations.
- Join trade delegations organized by chambers of commerce and exporter associations.
- Hold meetings with potential distributors and ask direct questions about pricing, margins and expected volumes.
Many governments support these first steps. In Türkiye, the Ministry of Trade offers programs that support market research, fair participation and promotion abroad; it is worth checking current conditions before you plan.
Common mistakes
- Choosing several distant markets at once and spreading resources too thin.
- Looking only at market size and ignoring competition and access.
- Underestimating the cost of certification, labeling and adapting the product.
- Relying on a single distributor without checking references.
- Expecting results within a few months; building an export market usually takes longer.
Start narrow, then expand
A sound export strategy usually starts with one or two well-chosen markets, learns from them and expands to similar markets nearby. The method above can be repeated each year as data, products and priorities change.
Our import and export service supports companies from target market research and buyer matching to customs, regulations and logistics. As you grow into new markets, our article on the signs your company has outgrown its structure may also be useful.
